Decoded: BFCM

Welcome to the second edition of Decoded!

We’re taking it back to 2024 to unpack what really happened during last year’s record-breaking Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Inside, you’ll find the trends, shifts, and key takeaways that can help you make smarter moves and drive bigger impacts this 2025 holiday season.

This edition of Decoded is brought to you by our guest editor Kaleigh Moore, who breaks down the numbers and what they actually mean for brands heading into BFCM 2025.

One thing is clear: last year’s results could have ripple effects well into this year. The standout story? TikTok, particularly live streams and affiliate-driven marketing. BFCM 2024 shattered records. But it’s not just raw revenue driving the increases. It’s how customers are shopping that makes it so interesting. Mobile drove the surge. The numbers suggest that platforms for shoppable video will likely continue to win in 2025.

TikTok is one way to connect with holiday shoppers. However, it’s not the only way that resonates. Let’s look at 2024’s record-breaking BFCM to see if there are hints at what’s coming in 2025.

the TL;DR:

🛍️ BFCM 2024 smashed records. Black Friday hit $10.8B (+10% YoY), Cyber Monday reached $13.3B (+7.3% YoY), and total Cyber Week sales topped $41.1B (+8.2% YoY). If 2025 sees similar growth, U.S. shoppers could spend around $45B next year, setting up another record-breaking holiday season.

📱 Mobile revenue share is set to take off, with Adobe predicting a 56.1% (+2.9% YoY) revenue share for the holiday season in 2025.

💵 Digital video ad spend is increasing 14% in 2025, hinting at what’s next for BFCM.

🛒 TikTok Shop is exploding: TikTok’s total shoppers increased by 165%, generating over $100 million in sales on Black Friday alone. Meta did well in the ad space, while YouTube saw strong numbers for shoppers looking for gift inspiration.

2024 BFCM Trends by the Numbers

Holiday shopping is alive and well. In fact, Adobe Analytics indicates a big year for BFCM, with Cyber Week reaching $41.1 billion. Cyber Monday’s 7.3% YoY growth in 2024 to $13.3 billion was a record, exceeding Adobe’s estimates of $13.2 billion.

Much of that growth came from mobile users. Adobe reports that 57% of online sales came through mobile devices on Cyber Monday, marking a new all-time high and accounting for $7.6 billion of total revenue. That momentum suggests mobile will take an even larger share of BFCM spending in 2025 as shoppers get more comfortable checking out on their phones.

Another shift defining the 2024 holiday season? Shoppers started earlier. TikTok’s holiday guidance showed that #holidayshopping videos increased by 190% from pre-Halloween to post-Halloween, for example. 

Our conclusion? The way people discover gifts for the holidays is moving from browsing to scrolling. People are on their phones when they decide they want gift ideas. We see AI-powered chatbots impacting how consumers shop online, including a 1,950% increase in traffic to retail sites on Cyber Monday compared to the previous year.

That makes sense for Cyber Monday, but what drove success on Black Friday? Record spending was bolstered by record online shopping during Thanksgiving (up 8.8% YoY), through Black Friday and the entire weekend. 

Digital growth wasn’t just reflecting more money in shoppers’ pockets. Overall, retail lagged behind these digital shopping methods, but still saw growth: U.S. Black Friday retail sales were up 3.4% over the previous year, according to Mastercard.

Our 2025 Prediction: Mobile will officially dominate BFCM. Adobe predicts it will take up 56.1% of the market share in November and December 2025. Expect brands to prioritize that: frictionless checkout, mobile-first creative, and implementing “buy-now” campaigns with relevant social channels.

BFCM 2024 by the Channels

TikTok Wins Live Shopping

If digital sales were doing so well, which channels would win? TikTok, for starters. Specifically, TikTok Shop saw a 165% increase in shoppers year-over-year.

“Fuelled by both familiar and new creators,” reports the news release, there were 4 billion #tiktokblackfriday views and 3.5 billion #tiktokshopcybermonday views across the entire platform.

Black Friday alone saw $100 million in single-day sales, a 3x from the previous year.

TikTok has also achieved significant success with its content creators and influencers. Take Stormi Steele, founder of Canvas Beauty and a content creator who was able to earn $2 million in a single livestream. TikTok reports that it has been encouraging sellers and creators to try out this format, which is already driving “billions in sales” in more established social shopping countries, such as China.

image creds: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lydiatblanco/2024/12/31/beauty-founder-stormi-steele-is-going-for-the-gold-in-business/

Meta’s Ad-Driven Revenue Succeeds

Digital ads also drove holiday spending, particularly on Meta, which comprised over two-thirds of all ad spend in a Triple Whale BFCM 2024 report. 

Meta’s CTR of 1.79% was notably high, outperforming Google's (1.33%) and TikTok's (1.01%) rates. It was an increase of 13.29% over BFCM 2023 while returning an average order value (AOV) of $100.17, the highest of all measured platforms.

YouTube’s BFCM data is a bit harder to come by, but the channel did outperform other channels like Instagram and TikTok as the most influential recommendation channel, according to the Influencer Marketing Factory.

The pattern in 2024 BFCM is clear: customers are rapidly adapting to social media platforms, AI chatbots, and other emerging trends to find shopping ideas.

Affiliate Marketing

According to Adobe Analytics, influencers and other affiliate-based marketing efforts drove approximately 20% of all U.S. Cyber Monday revenue. 

The 7% YoY increase this represented over 2023 highlights a sharper increase from retail buys.

That’s not all. Adobe found that any product promoted via an affiliate link was six times more likely to result in a purchase compared to content posted on social media by the brand itself.

BFCM 2024 Wins and Success Stories

"TikTok Shop's Black Friday sales were a relatively new phenomenon in 2023, which explains the lack of year-over-year data comparing 2023 and 2024. The platform had only recently launched when Black Friday 2023 occurred, and TikTok chose not to release official sales figures at that time, according to TubeFilter."

But influencers were still quick to capitalize on 2024. Stormi Steele, the founder of Canvas Beauty, earned $2 million in a single livestream. A representative for Canvas Beauty stated that the company sold over 100,000 products and grossed more than $3 million in sales during Black Friday.

The implication? This is a fast-rising trend. This means we should expect even bigger things from TikTok Shop in BFCM 2025.

Outside of influencer marketing, Essential Jewellery was a winner in BFCM, utilizing Meta and Google ads that were rolled out in early November. 

image creds: https://swankyagency.com/black-friday-marketing-strategy-case-study-essential-jewellery/

The early ads on Facebook, for example, allowed customers to sign up for exclusive early access to BFCM sales. This keyed customers into a 15% sitewide discount offer.

The results: a 29% revenue increase, an 18% increase in order numbers, and a 12% increase in conversion rates compared to the brand’s BFCM performance in 2023.

Missed Opportunities in BFCM 2024

BFCM sales did better online than in brick-and-mortar retail, says Reuters.

Americans spent over $10 billion online on Black Friday (+10.2 % YoY), followed by $13.3 billion on Cyber Monday (+7.3%). 

Retail stores that adopted an online strategy did well, particularly Walmart and Amazon. Target and Best Buy didn’t perform as well in BFCM. According to Reuters, one potential reason was Walmart’s increased emphasis on digital deals.

One reason for the mixed retail results: “holiday shoppers largely browsed” at brick-and-mortar while making online purchases at their favorite online retailers. 

Additionally, brands saw mixed results with starting the BFCM season too early. However, strong strategies (like Essential Jewelry’s) did well. Yahoo! Finance reports that brands like GAP and The North Face “deepened promotions as the weekend progressed,” which suggested “underperformance against initial sales targets.” For many brands, beginning the weekend too early had diminishing returns.

Key Lessons for Brands in BFCM 2025

Timing Matters:

Early discounts diluted some of the urgency out of some brands’ BFCM offerings. Essential Jewellery used Meta ads effectively to gather emails for a campaign scheduled around BFCM. 

And streamers like Stormi Steele used TikTok Shop for one-time offerings during the weekend, which led to an expanded sense of urgency. But for other brands, starting too early had the potential to dilute their BFCM offerings.

“Inspiration” Video Platforms Will Do Well:

TikTok Shop’s $100 million in Black Friday revenues and the explosion of live selling mean there’s value in experimenting beyond traditional measures, such as email campaigns.

Meta and Google ads really cashed in for brands in 2024. And it turns out YouTube is quite the matchmaker for holiday gifts, proving that these 'inspiration platforms' are where shoppers go when they're in need of a little nudge (or a full-blown suggestion) for what to buy.

Mobile is the Default:

These trends are largely attributable to one factor: mobile. With consumers increasingly using their phones for shopping, platforms like Meta, TikTok, and YouTube have become central hubs for holiday shopping inspiration.

Adobe’s Mobile Spend forecast for this year’s November-December months is $147 billion, up 8.5% over last year. Expect those trends to continue and plan accordingly.

Last Minute Tactics for BFCM Success

Even if you're late to the BFCM planning game, there are still high-impact tactics you can deploy quickly. Here's what brands can implement in the time frame leading up to BFCM 2025:

Activate Micro-Influencers Now

Don't wait for mega-influencers with long lead times. Reach out to micro-influencers (10K-100K followers) in your niche who can create authentic content quickly. Offer them affiliate codes with competitive commissions or free products in exchange for honest reviews. These partnerships can be established in days, not months, and micro-influencers often have higher engagement rates than their larger counterparts.

Launch a Flash Live Stream

Taking a page from Stormi Steele's playbook, schedule a last-minute live shopping event on TikTok Shop, Instagram Live, or YouTube. You don't need elaborate production —authenticity wins. Showcase your best deals, answer questions in real-time, and offer exclusive, live-only discount codes to create a sense of urgency and drive sales. Even a single successful live stream can generate significant revenue.

Optimize for Mobile Checkout Speed

With more sales happening on mobile than ever before, audit your mobile checkout process now. Remove unnecessary form fields, enable autofill, offer guest checkout, and integrate digital wallets like Apple Pay and Google Pay. Even small reductions in friction can dramatically improve conversion rates during the high-traffic BFCM period.

Create Urgency with Countdown Timers

Add countdown timers to your website, emails, and social media posts to enhance user engagement. Display the amount of time remaining until deals expire or when the limited inventory will sell out. This visual urgency taps into FOMO (fear of missing out) and can push hesitant shoppers to convert.

Leverage User-Generated Content

Don't have time for a professional photoshoot? Request permission to use customer photos and reviews in your marketing. UGC performs exceptionally well on social platforms and builds trust quickly. Create a branded hashtag and encourage customers to share their experiences for a chance to be featured or win a prize.

Set Up Affiliate Links for Everything

Make every product shoppable through affiliate links. Remember, affiliate-promoted products were 6 times more likely to convert than brand posts. Use platforms like LTK, Amazon Associates, or Shopify Collabs to quickly enable affiliates to promote your products with unique tracking links.

Send Strategic Email Sequences

If you haven't already, create a simple three-email sequence: (1) Pre-BFCM teaser announcing deals, (2) Black Friday launch with best offers, (3) Cyber Monday last chance reminder. Segment your list between engaged subscribers and lapsed customers, offering slightly different incentives to each group.

Test TikTok Shop Integration

If you're not already on TikTok Shop, it's not too late to join. Set up a basic shop, add your hero products, and create simple, organic content that showcases products in use. The algorithm favors new sellers, providing you with potential visibility without requiring significant ad spend.

What’s Next for BFCM 2025? The Bottom Line.

Black Friday and Cyber Monday are more than just the end of year shopping moment for marketers and consumers. This is where we find the loudest indicators of where consumer behaviour is heading.

In 2025, we know that social commerce will only accelerate. Platforms like TikTok and Meta are building full ecosystems that move consumers seamlessly from content to checkout. For brands, the opportunity now is to test, learn, and build early muscle in these new shoppable environments before they become table stakes.

Influencers and affiliates will play a bigger role in driving measurable sales. As ad costs climb and trust declines, creators will become the bridge between discovery and conversion. The brands that integrate influencer and affiliate programs into their core strategies will win this year’s BFCM.

And while physical retail still matters, the balance of power continues to shift online. Omnichannel experiences, loyalty-driven engagement, and seamless digital storefronts will define success in 2025.

The takeaway? BFCM is no longer just that crazy commerce weekend. it’s a signal of how commerce is evolving. The brands that treat it as a learning lab for the year ahead will stay ahead of the next curve.